Be well-capitalised Most new traders run out of money even before they see any profits in their trading account.

Indeed, those who are new to trading most likely do not have a good understanding of the risks and dangers that are lurking in the market, and few even know what drawdown means or have even heard of this word. Many of them do know that trading can be very risky if they do not know what they are doing or how things work in the currency market and, to them, one of the obvious but incorrect ways to limit this risk is by allocating just a small amount of money to their trading account.

There are also many new traders who begin their trading business with little initial capital as they simply do not have enough money. Whatever their reasons may be, being under-capitalised will be more than just a mistake; it is often the prelude to trading failure.

Forex traders who want to set themselves up for success must be well-capitalised. Never mind that some retail brokers are offering a minimum account deposit of just a few hundred dollars — a paltry amount that almost every one can afford. Sufficient initial capital must be available to cushion the impact of a string of consecutive losses, so that you do not wipe out your trading account. A series of losses is really not that uncommon in trading, and all traders must be financially prepared for it.

Those with insufficient trading capital tend to set really tight stops, which will naturally then lead to a higher probability of being stopped out. They also tend to have a good chunk of their account eaten away by unreasonably large losses in relation to their trading account, if they do not set tight stops. So it seems that whichever way they turn, they are setting themselves up for failure, unless they are willing to trade smaller lot sizes.

Looking outside of trading, many other businesses fail because the owners often do not have enough capital to tide them over the initial starting phase. For example, a new restaurant owner must set aside enough money to pay the rent of the restaurant for at least a few months to a few years, assuming that the restaurant would not make any net profits in that period of time.

If the owner only has enough to pay for two months rent from his or her own pocket, and the restaurant is still not making enough to cover the rent and other expenses in the third month, how do you think the business is going to sustain itself? The entire business could fail, not because of the business model, but because of the lack of sufficient capital to keep the business running while the customer base builds up. Trading, as I have mentioned before, must be treated just like any other business, not a frivolous casual pursuit.

The point is this: by starting off sufficiently capitalised, you are more likely to adhere to your money management rules and, by doing so, you are really giving yourself a good fighting chance in the market. Losses are really just part of the trading game. If trading losses are kept manageable and reasonable, they should not dent your trading account too much, provided that you are well-capitalised. Knowing when to get out of a losing position in the currency market is a very important tool of risk management.

Stop-loss orders allow traders to set an exit point for a losing trade, and are the best weapon against emotional trading. While I recommend that traders place a stop-loss order at the time of placing their entry order, mental stops may also be used — but preferably by traders who are more disciplined. From experience, it is much wiser to have a wider but reasonable stop than to have an unreasonably tight stop. Generally, a stop-loss order should not be shifted in the losing direction while a position is opened.

A good trader should know beforehand when to cut his or her losses, and also when to get out of the market with profits. It is indeed the elusive factor that courts the relentless determination of its seekers. Want to know where it lies? It only exists in the creative part of the mind — together with fairies and gnomes. There is no perfect formula or strategy that can achieve that unrealistic goal because people who are involved in the financial markets evolve with changing market circumstances, even though certain old habits die hard.

Despite the non- existence of the magic formula, there are certainly high probability ways of trading the forex market. While the bulk of this book is focused on the Method part, you need to combine Method with both Money and Mind in order to attain success in the trading business.

The old question: technicals or fundamentals? There are generally three broad categories of forex traders pertaining to what they base their trading decisions on: 1. the technical trader, 2. the fundamental trader, 3. the trader who combines both technicals and fundamentals. Each type of trader has a distinctively different way of interpreting the currency market based on his or her own opinions. Technical trading A technical trader believes that historical data has a big role in the forecasting of future price action, and is thus devoted to currency price chart analysis, making use of various charting tools such as support and resistance levels, trendlines and a myriad of chart indicators to understand past price behaviour so as to predict what the market will do next.

Most forex traders employ some kind of technical analysis to help them make trading decisions. Technical traders assume that everything that is to be known about the market has already been factored into the current price.

Fundamental traders believe that the exchange rate of currencies are largely driven by economic and geopolitical conditions, aside from central bank interventions, and will keep track of economic data such as trade balances, inflation, Gross Domestic Product GDP , unemployment rates, interest rates and so on. They are also concerned about what policymakers have to say regarding the monetary policy of the country, and will keep on top of these when speeches are scheduled.

Combing technicals and fundamentals Since there are advantages of analyzing the forex market from these two different fields, it would be too restrictive to just side with one area and ignore the other. The most effective traders tend to make trading decisions based on a combination of both technical and fundamental factors in order to get a feel of the overall market sentiment, and then decide to either trade that sentiment or to trade against it taking a contrarian approach.

The strategies taught in this book must always be combined with the prevailing market sentiment, which is influenced mainly by fundamentals. Some strategies may work well for some traders, but may not have the same results for others over a period of time. This may seem puzzling for some people who are wondering that if something works for someone, then it should work for other people as well. In trading, there are so many other factors specific to each trader that can influence the overall trading performance — his or her emotions, psychology, trading time frame, money management rules, lifestyle, trading capital and so on.

The strategies included in this book are open to customisation according to your own personal preference. Many traders do not give themselves the fighting chance and time to stay in the game as they are prone to getting wiped out very quickly. The Ten Rules For Forex Trading I list here ten rules that I think are important for trading forex.

Dos 1. When trying out a new trading strategy, always test it in a demo account, or with a small amount of money, before you commit more money to it. Always keep a record of each of your trades, with details of: why you got in, how you got out and why it turned out the way it did. Have a personalised trading plan and update it as you learn from the market. If you are unsure of a trade, stay out. It is better to miss an opportunity than to have a loss.

When trading, keep up-to-date with both the fundamentals and technicals affecting the market. A trader in the dark is a trader in the red. It will affect you emotionally, and you will most likely lose it to irrational trading. Always know why you are getting into a trade, and how you are going to get out of it.

Just be concerned about being profitable. Chances are that your account will be decimated before you can recoup your losses and go into profit. Vent your frustrations elsewhere after a loss. Do you see it as a big mechanical matrix which is devoid of emotions? Or do you think of it in mathematical and probability terms? Perhaps, you may even view it as just a vast network of computers which are designed to cheat the trader sitting in front of his or her computer and trading electronically.

Most traders I know have a love-hate relationship with the forex market, thinking that the market is, in turn, either against them or for them. To me, the forex market is nothing more than the compressed display of emotions at any one time emanating from currency speculators around the world.

It is similar to a big living organism, like a human being, which is made up of numerous cells, with each cell carrying out its own function and interacting with other cells of the body, working to keep the body alive with round-the-clock chemical and biological processes. The forex market is alive as a macro living organism, which comprises a vast number of market participants acting out their perceptions and emotions, thus driving the blood around the invisible entity.

The participation of each player, whether the player is an institutional dealer or an independent trader, is akin to the individual functioning of a cell, which collectively will constitute the whole organism — the forex market in this case.

Knowing what the market thinks and how it thinks is crucial to trading success because, ultimately, the trader is dealing with other traders out there, and needs to know what they are thinking. Even if you see the market as an enemy, what could be better than knowing the weak points and being able to read the mind of your adversary? In this chapter, I shall focus on how you can better understand the market, and use that knowledge as one of your trading weapons.

Market sentiment is simply what the majority of the market is perceived to be thinking or feeling about the market — it is the most important factor that drives the currency market. This is so because traders tend to act based on what they feel and think of certain currencies, regarding their strength or weakness relative to other currencies.

Market sentiment sums up the overall dominating emotion of the majority of the market participants, and explains the current actions of the market, as well as the future course of actions of the market. The trend adopted by the forex market is actually a reflection of the current market sentiment, which in turn guides the trading decisions of other traders, whether they should long or short a currency pair.

In the process of making educated trading decisions, traders have to weigh a multitude of factors which could influence the bias of a currency, before making up their minds about the current and future state of certain currencies. There are three main types of sentiment when it comes to forming opinions in the forex market: 1.

bullish, 2. bearish or 3. just plain confused. If the majority of the market wants to sell that currency, the market sentiment is deemed to be bearish; if the majority wants to buy that currency, the market sentiment is bullish; and when most market participants are unsure of what to do at the moment, the sentiment ends up being mixed.

Market sentiment acts like a fickle lover, capable of changing its mind based on certain incoming new information which can upset the existing sentiment. One moment everyone could be buying the US dollar in anticipation of a stronger dollar; the next second they could all be dumping it as they fear the dollar would start to weaken due to the impact of some new piece of information, which is almost always some fundamental news.

Interest rates Trends in interest rates are one of the most significant factors influencing market sentiment, as interest rates play a huge role affecting the supply and demand of currencies. Every currency in the world has interest rates attached to them, and these rates are decided by central banks. Some currencies have higher interest rates than others, and these are usually the currencies that attract the most attention from savvy international investors who are always looking across the global landscape in the continual search for a better interest rate yield on fixed-income investments.

This, of course, also depends on the geopolitical or economic risks of that particular currency. Just like when a bank lends money to a higher-risk borrower, high-risk currencies require a significantly higher interest rate for investors to consider keeping money in those currencies. What causes fluctuations in interest rates? The value of money can and does decrease when there is an upward revision of prices of most goods and services in a country. The nice word for this erosion in value is, of course, inflation.

Controlling inflation Central banks are responsible for ensuring price stability in their own country, and one of the ways they employ to fight inflationary pressures is through the setting of interest rates. If inflation risks are seen to be edging upward in, say, the US, the Fed would raise the federal funds rate, which is the rate at which banks charge each other for overnight loans.

When the overnight rate is changed, retail banks will change their prime lending rates accordingly, hence affecting businesses and individuals. An increase in interest rates is an attempt to make money more expensive to borrow so that there will be a gradual decrease in demand for that currency, thus slowing down an overheated economy. Interest rates and currencies The most important way in which interest rates can influence currency prices is through the widespread practice of the carry trade.

A carry trade involves the borrowing and subsequent selling of a certain currency with a relatively low interest rate, then using the funds to buy a currency which gives a higher interest rate, in an attempt to gain the difference between these two rates — which is known as the interest rate differential. The trader is paid interest on the currency he or she is long in, and must pay interest on the currency he or she is shorting.

This difference is the cost of carry. Therefore, a currency with a higher interest rate tends to be highly sought after by investors looking for a higher return on their investments.

The increased demand for that particular currency will thus push up the currency price against other currencies. For instance, in there was a strong interest among Japanese investors to invest in New Zealand dollar-denominated assets due to rising interest rates in New Zealand.

The then near-zero interest rates in Japan forced a lot of Japanese investors to look outside of their country for better yields on cash deposits or fixed- income instruments. See Figure 5. When forex traders anticipate this kind of situation, they become more inclined to buy that high-interest-rate currency as well, knowing that there is likely to be massive buying interest for that currency.

So, in general, rising interest rates in a country should boost the market sentiment regarding the currency of that country. The opposite is true too: when interest rates are cut in a country, that would result in quite a bearish sentiment regarding the currency of that country, and traders would be more willing to sell than buy that particular currency. Economic growth Besides interest rates, economic growth of countries can also have a big impact on the overall currency market sentiment.

Since the United States has the largest economy in the world, the US economy is a key factor in determining the overall market sentiment, especially of currency pairs that have the USD component. A robust economic expansion, coupled with a healthy labour market, tends to boost consumer spending in that country, and this helps companies and businesses to flourish. A country with a strong economy is in a better position to attract more overseas investments into the country, as investors generally prefer to invest in a solid economy that is growing at a steady pace.

Forex traders, expecting this consequence, will put on their bullish cap to buy that currency before the investors do. Gross Domestic Product GDP , 2. the unemployment rate, and 3. trade balance data. These are explained below. Unemployment rate The unemployment data reports the state of the labour market of a country. Trade balance data Another widely watched economic indicator is the trade balance data.

Trade balance measures the difference between the value of imports and exports of goods and services of a country. If a country exports more than it imports, it has a trade surplus. For example, if the US imports an increased amount of goods and services from Europe, US dollars will have to be sold in exchange to buy euros to pay for those imports. The resulting outflow of US dollars from the United States could potentially cause a depreciation of the US dollar against the euro or other currencies, and that can affect market sentiment surrounding the USD.

The opposite scenario is true for a country that is experiencing a trade surplus. Global geopolitical uncertainties such as terrorism, transitional change of government or nuclear threats can cause investors to lose faith in some particular currencies, and they may prefer to shift their assets into a safe haven currency when these circumstances arise. Market sentiment is very sensitive to such geopolitical developments, and can cause a strong bias towards a particular currency.

For example, during periods of high tension in the Middle East in , the market formed a very bullish sentiment towards the US dollar, which became the preferred currency to hold in such turbulent times, replacing the traditional status of the Swiss franc as the safe haven currency. Forex traders should be keenly aware of the current geopolitical environment in order to keep track of any potential change in market sentiment, which could impact currency prices.

But how can you get an idea of the overall sentiment of the market? You can do so by reading reports by analysts and financial journalists in news wires or by visiting online trading forums to see what other traders are discussing.

However, these ways of getting a feel of the current market sentiment are not too accurate; you may think that other traders are in a buying or selling mood, but that may not be what is really happening in reality. Here are some of the more effective ways of gauging market sentiment: 1. The Commitment of Traders COT report 2.

Commitment Of Traders COT report What is the COT? The COT report provides traders with detailed positioning information about the futures market, and is, in my opinion, one of the most underrated tools that forex traders can make use of to enhance their trading performance. The report is compiled and released weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission CFTC in the United States every Friday at Eastern Time, and records open interest information about the futures market based on the previous Tuesday.

Anyone can access the COT report for free on the CFTC website www. There are basically two types of reports available: the futures-only COT report and the futures-and-options-combined COT report.

I usually just access the futures- only report for a glimpse of what has happened in the futures dimension of the forex market. In order to get through to the currency futures data, you have to wade past other commodities like milk, feeder cattle and so on, so a little patience is required.

Even though the data arrives three days late, the information nonetheless can be helpful since many traders spend their weekend analyzing the COT report. The time lag between reporting and release is the main handicap of the COT data, but despite this limitation, you can still use it as a sentiment tool.

Figure 5. You can see the long and short positions held by traders in each of the three main categories defined by the CFTC, as explained below. Some notes to the figure above. For example, a German car-maker, who exports to the US, expects to receive 10 million euros worth of sales within the next quarter. To hedge against the possibility of a US dollar decline which would affect the amount of euros it would receive once converted, the German car-maker would short 10 million in Euro FX futures.

On the other hand, if a US car manufacturer exports 10 million US dollars worth of cars within the next quarter, it would long the equivalent in Euro FX futures contracts. The COT report tells you the long and short positions undertaken by participants from each category. When it comes to analyzing information pertaining to currency futures in the COT report, it is generally more relevant for traders to focus on the non- commercial participants rather than on the commercial participants.

The reason behind this is that these large speculators trade the futures contracts mainly for profits, and do not have the intention to take delivery of the underlying asset, which in this case would be cash. Large speculators, however, will usually close their losing positions instead of rolling them over to the next month.

Why use The COT? The COT report allows you to gauge market sentiment in the currency futures market, which also influences the spot forex market.

Currency futures are basically spot prices which are adjusted by the forwards derived by interest rate differentials to arrive at a future delivery price. Unlike spot forex which does not have a centralised exchange at the time of writing, currency futures are cleared at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Price quotation One of the many differences between spot forex and currency futures lies in their quoting convention.

In the currency futures market, currency futures are mostly quoted as the foreign currency directly against the US dollar. That said, spot forex and currency futures do have one similarity: the spot and futures prices of a currency tend to move in tandem.

When either the spot or futures price of a currency rises, the other also tends to rise, and when either falls, the other also tends to fall. What is of concern to us is whether the non-commercials are net long or short in that currency futures.

In order to determine the volume of contracts that these large speculators are holding net long or short positions of for that particular currency futures, you just need to calculate the difference between the longs and shorts, that is, subtract the number of short contracts from the number of long contracts. A positive figure shows the number of net long contracts, while a negative figure shows the number of net short contracts.

As you can see in Figure 5. The non-commercials are long 98, contracts and short 12, contracts. Therefore, they are overall net long 85, contracts - Usually, when a particular currency is trending up against the US dollar, the non- commercials tend to register a net long position since these large speculators tend to ride on the existing trend.

The opposite situation is true too: the non-commercials tend to register a net short position when a particular currency is trending down against the US dollar. Knowing whether this category has been net long or short a few days ago only indicates to us the positioning in retrospect; this information is only useful if you compare the latest net positioning with the positioning figures from the past few weeks or months.

By comparing the latest net positioning with that of the past few weeks or months, you can tell if the latest net long or net short positioning is skewing towards an extreme reading. My observation of the financial markets is that dramatic price moves, usually at major turning points, tend to occur when the majority of the market is positioned incorrectly.

And since the large speculators are more inclined to close their losing positions than the commercial hedgers, it is beneficial for us to keep an eye on their net directional positioning as well as their net contract volume in the currency futures market. If these large non-commercials are positioned on the wrong side of the market, you can expect liquidation of these positions, with the extent of liquidation depending on the total volume of contracts traded in the wrong direction.

Such mass unwinding of positions tends to bring about a powerful price move in the opposite direction which could last for a few days, and it is this turning point that you could detect with the COT data before the reversal scene actually plays out. Example: COT — using extreme position An example of this was played out in the week through November 17, In this case, all those who had the intention to go long on GBP had already done so.

X-axis displays the dates for every three weeks even though the data for every week is shown on the chart. Y-axis displays the net number of speculative contracts. Positive numbers indicate net long positioning, while negative numbers indicate net short positioning. The presence of an extreme reading allows you to be prepared for a possible trend reversal which could occur when large speculators liquidate their positions.

A mere increase or decrease of contracts for a particular currency futures does not indicate anything which could be of predictive value, as it simply shows you what has happened, but not what could possibly happen in a high-probability scenario.

COT data is a diamond in the rough What deters many traders from using the COT report is its raw organisation of data, but that is not good enough an excuse to completely neglect this little treasure trove. The information from the COT report can be transferred into a spreadsheet so that further analysis can be conducted in a more suitable format. Analysis of the COT report does not always throw up trading opportunities in the spot forex market, but when it does, you will be better prepared for a potential turn of tide, and be more confident in your trades.

Even though entries and exits cannot be timed solely based on the COT data, it can be an extremely useful tool to have in your toolbox to gauge the overall market sentiment. The forex market is very efficient at discounting future expectations by incorporating them into current prices. Very often, when news comes out better than is expected by economists and analysts, the currency of that country is more likely to soar against another currency. When the news is worse than expected, that currency is more likely to fall against another currency.

However, if the news or data turn out to be worse than expected and still the currency price soars, that is, the market reacts in a very bullish way to worse than expected data, a bright red flag should be waving at you. The opposite situation also applies: if price action remains very bearish to much better than expected news, it signals a highly suspect price move. In short, you should look out for a contrarian market reaction to better or worse than expected news.

Under these circumstances, it is better to assume that the price move is hardly supported by substance, and could reverse sometime soon. A bullish price move that is not accompanied by evidence will soon be due for a reality check, just like a bearish price move that is not accompanied by evidence is very likely to be corrected very soon.

For example, if a piece of news turns out to be worse than expected, and assuming that there are no pre-release rumours or leaks of the news, and the currency pair rallies to break above a significant resistance level, you have reasons to suspect that the breakout move is likely to be false and unsustainable. Even if the currency pair manages to make new highs later on, you should be prepared for a possible trend reversal very soon.

The relative significance of news will vary from time to time. Summary As you have seen, market sentiment can be used, and should be used, to time your trade and identify profitable trading conditions. The Market Sentiment Strategy has to be applied in conjunction with other strategies as it does not have precise entry and exit signals. Once you get a sense of the current market sentiment, you can then decide whether it is best to trade with or against the sentiment, taking into account all other factors.

While it may be sensible to trade in the direction of the current sentiment, sometimes, trading against the sentiment can also be a profitable strategy, provided that you have valid reasons to do so. For example, when the COT report indicates extreme positioning of the market, or when the market seems to be feeding off false euphoria on worse than expected news, it may be better to trade against the overall sentiment.

You should, however, wait for a more precise signal that the current sentiment is wearing off before going against it, as sometimes false euphoria can last for quite some time before resulting in a reversal. This signal could be a failed breakout of some sort or some other pattern failure. Always keep in mind that currency prices are, after all, the expressed perceptions of traders and market sentiment is really the blood that drives the market on the whole.

Being able to ride on a trend is akin to making full use of the wind direction to steer your ship towards your destination. For a ship to go against the wind requires a tremendous amount of effort — one has to fight the stubborn resistance from the opposing wind.

Indeed, for most of the time, it pays more to be on the side of the current trend than to go against it. In the forex market, trend riders can capture any trend regardless of whether it is rising or falling in an attempt to generate trading profits. Forex tends to have quite trending markets, regardless of which time frame you are looking at — trends are often formed on hourly, daily or weekly charts. With trends possibly having a long lifespan stretching to months, or even years, it is no wonder that many traders and fund managers exalt the strategy of hitching onto trends, with the glorious aim of capturing enormous profits from start to finish.

Trend riding is one of my favourite trading approaches, and I often ride the uptrend or downtrend after the trend has been established, rather than anticipating the move before it happens.

I would say that even though the trend is your friend most of the times, one has to use a variety of methods to distinguish between a continuation of the trend and a possible trend reversal. But before you can ride on trends, you first need to identify what the current trend is, and to determine the time frame of the trend.

The question of what kind of trend is in place cannot be separated from the time frame that a trend is in. Trends are, after all, used to determine the relative direction of prices in a market over different time periods.

There are mainly three types of trends in terms of time measurement: 1. primary long-term , 2. intermediate medium-term , and 3. These are discussed in further detail below. Primary trend A primary trend lasts the longest period of time, and its lifespan may range between eight months and two years. This is the major trend that can be spotted easily on longer term charts such as the daily, weekly or monthly charts. Long-term traders who trade according to the primary trend are the most concerned about the fundamental picture of the currency pairs that they are trading, since fundamental factors will provide these traders with an idea of supply and demand on a bigger scale.

Intermediate trend Within a primary trend, there will be counter-cyclical trends, and such price movements form the intermediate trend. This type of trend could last from a month to as long as eight months. Knowing what the intermediate trend is of great importance to the position trader who tends to hold positions for several weeks or months at one go.

Short-term trend A short-term trend can last for a few days to as long as a month. It appears during the course of the intermediate trend due to global capital flows reacting to daily economic news and political situations.

Day traders are concerned with spotting and identifying short-term trends and as such short-term price movements are aplenty in the currency market, and can provide significant profit opportunities within a very short period of time. You can easily gauge the direction of a trend by looking at the price chart of a currency pair.

A trend can be defined as a series of higher lows and higher highs in an uptrend, and a series of lower highs and lower lows in a downtrend. In reality, prices do not always go higher in an uptrend, but still tend to bounce off areas of support, just like prices do not always make lower lows in a downtrend, but still tend to bounce off areas of resistance.

There are three trend directions a currency pair could take: 1. uptrend, 2. downtrend or 3. Uptrend In an uptrend, the base currency which is the first currency symbol in a pair appreciates in value. An uptrend is characterised by a series of higher highs and higher lows. However in real life, sometimes the currency does not make higher highs, but still makes higher lows. Downtrend On the other hand, in a downtrend, the base currency depreciates in value.

A downtrend is characterised by a series of lower highs and lower lows, but similarly, the currency does not always make lower lows, but still tends to make lower highs. Sideways trend If a currency pair does not go much higher or much lower, we can say that it is going sideways. When this happens the prices are moving within a narrow range, and are neither appreciating nor depreciating much in value.

For the Trend Riding Strategy, I shall focus only on the uptrend and the downtrend. The stages of a trend are not clear- cut, and that includes the starting and ending stages; and each stage can vary in length of time. Nascent trend 2. Fully charged trend 3.

Aging trend 4. End of trend Figure 6. As you can see, Stage 1 of the uptrend started when the currency pair first emerged from the down trendline. Later, a double top formation hinted that the uptrend was at Stage 3 when the trend was beginning to show signs of weariness. Stage 1: Nascent trend Right after a reversal, the embryonic trend emerges into the new territory with the greatest amount of uncertainty, as traders have the least amount of confidence in the direction of the nascent trend.

Price moves are often sharp, and may even retest the price levels seen before the entry into the new territory as bulls and bears wrestle for power. This characterises Stage 1 of a trend, and it is where aggressive traders get into the currency market, hoping to be right about the new direction of the trend and reap potentially the most profits by getting in early.

Since this stage of the trend has the greatest level of uncertainty, it is also where the risk of trend failure is greatest. Stage 2: Fully charged trend By the time the trend reaches Stage 2, it is fully charged. Either the bulls or the bears have won the battle over the other by now, and are persistently pushing the currency prices higher during an uptrend, or lower during a downtrend.

The highly confident behaviour of the bulls in the uptrend and of the bears in the downtrend gives little room for uncertainty about the trend direction. This stage is ideally the best time for the risk-averse trader to join in the prevailing trend, after getting confirmation from the technical picture and market sentiment.

Stage 3: Aging trend As with human beings, a trend gets old and tired eventually. Aging of a trend typically occurs in Stage 3, and it is at this stage that you can witness the fallacies of man. Overly eager traders, especially those who have missed out on the initial stages of the trend, are now realising their tardiness, and are hopping onto the trend bandwagon, hoping to still be able to get a piece of the action.

The more experienced traders are more than happy to pass on the closing legs of their transactions over to these inexperienced traders as they try to take their profits while the trend is near the peak of an uptrend, or near the bottom of a downtrend. Seasoned traders begin to lose their confidence in the strength of the trend, whereas inexperienced traders who are still hoping to gain more profits remain optimistic about the trend.

A rounded bottom forms rarely on the price chart. It is a reversal chart pattern that shows three consecutive attempts of big traders to break or approach a specific key level. After that, a trend reversal in the market occurs.

The 3-drive chart pattern consists of three impulsive waves and two retracement waves. The number three is also a Fibonacci number, and it has much importance in trading. Pennant is a continuation chart pattern with five waves ABCDE.

It shows the trend continuation after a minor pause in the trend. This chart pattern consists of two impulsive waves and three retracement waves. During the retracement wave, the market consolidated inwards, indicating indecision in the market.

After indecision, when the price breaks in the trend, the trend continues. The wedge pattern is a trend reversal chart pattern in which the price structure resembles a wedge shape. A Wedge has a wider outer section and smaller outer section. It is also a natural pattern because it depicts the natural behaviour of price. It consists of two trend lines upper and lower trendlines and more than three waves inside the trend lines.

The size of the waves continues decreasing with time, and after the trend line breakout, a trend reversal happens in the market.

Based on the price structure or higher high lower low formation, wedge pattern is classified into two types. The rising wedge shows the bearish trend reversal, and the falling wedge pattern indicates a bullish trend reversal in the market.

A diamond pattern is a reversal and continuation chart pattern in which price forms a structure of diamond on the chart. Two market patterns broadening and inward consolidation combine to make a diamond pattern. The location of the diamond chart pattern decides whether it will be a trend reversal pattern or a trend continuation pattern.

If a diamond pattern forms at the top of the trend, a bearish trend reversal will occur. On the other hand, if it begins at the bottom of the bearish trend, then a bullish trend reversal will form. The descending triangle is a bearish continuation chart pattern in which price forms a triangle-like shape with a horizontal base and vertical line on the left side.

In this pattern, price forms swing so that each progressive swing will be smaller than the previous wave. A support zone also forms at the bottom of swing waves. A bearish trend continuation occurs on the chart when the support zone breaks. The ascending triangle is a bullish continuation chart pattern in which the price forms a triangle-like shape with a horizontal base at the top.

It is the inverse of descending triangle pattern. Swing waves forms, and after a resistance breakout bullish trend continues. It is straightforward to identify these two patterns, and the probability of winning these two patterns is also very high.

Tip: GBPJPY is a pair that usually make ascending and descending triangle pattern on the price chart on different timeframes. The symmetrical triangle pattern acts as a reversal and continuation chart pattern because of its equal probability of a bullish or bearish trend. This pattern shows that market makers are making decisions. So, the price moves sideways and inwards.

Inward consolidation means each progressive wave will be smaller than the previous wave. So how can we identify the trend direction using a symmetrical triangle pattern? Using the breakout method. When this pattern forms, we draw the trendlines meeting the lower highs and higher lows. The breakout of trendlines shows that buyers will take control or sellers will overcome the market.

A flag pattern is a trend continuation chart pattern consisting of an impulsive wave and a retracement wave. The flag chart pattern is the most widely used and advanced. Because the psychology of this chart pattern is very deep, it can be used in many ways to predict the forex market direction. An impulsive bullish wave and a bearish retracement wave combine to make a flag pattern in the bullish flag.

The impulsive wave resembles the shape of a pole, and retracement resembles the shape of the flag on the pole. The breakout of the flag indicates the continuation of the bullish trend. Inflation indicator. for month prior to the release of the report. Section 02 Key drivers of currency movements Economic indicators What you need to know about them Part 1 What are Economic Indicators?

Economic indicators are snippets of financial and economic data published regularly by governmental agencies and the private sector. These statistics help market observers monitor the economy's pulse - so it's no surprise that they're followed by almost everyone in the financial markets. With so many people poised to react to the same information, economic indicators have tremendous potential to generate volume and move prices. It might seem like you need an advanced economics degree to parse all this data accurately - but in fact traders need only keep a few simple guidelines in mind when making trading decisions based on this data.

Mark Your Economic Calendars Watching the economic calendar not only helps you consider trades around these events, it helps explain otherwise unanticipated price actions during those periods.

Consider this scenario: it's Monday morning and the USD has been falling for 3 weeks, with many traders short USD positions as a result. On Friday, however, U. employment data is scheduled to be released.

If that report looks promising, traders may start unwinding their short positions before Friday, leading to a short-term rally in USD through the week. Know exactly when each economic indicator will be released. You can find these calendars at the New York Federal Reserve Bank's site. What does This Data Mean for the Economy?

You need not understand every nuance of each data release, but you should try to grasp key, large-scale relationships between reports and what they measure in the economy. For example, you should know which indicators measure the economy's growth gross domestic product, or GDP versus those that measure inflation PPI, CPI or employment strength non-farm payrolls. Not All Economic Indicators can Move Markets The market may pay attention to different indicators under different conditions.

That focus can change over time and from one currency to another. For example, if prices inflation are not a crucial issue for a given country, but its economic growth is problematic, traders may pay less attention to inflation data and focus on employment data or GDP reports.

Section 02 Key drivers of currency movements Economic indicators What you need to know about them Part 2 Watch for the Unexpected Often the data itself may not be as important as whether or not it falls within market expectations. If a given report differs widely and unexpectedly from what economists and market pundits were anticipating, market volatility and potential trading opportunities may result.

At the same time, be careful of pulling the trigger too quickly when an indicator falls outside expectations. Each new economic indicator release contains revisions to previously released data.

Don't Get Caught Up in Details While your macroeconomics professor may appreciate all the nuances of an economic report, traders need to filter data to focus on the numbers that can inform their trading decisions. For example, many new traders watch the headlines of the employment report, for example, assuming that new jobs are key to economic growth.

That may be true generally, but in trading terms non-farm payroll is the figure traders watch most closely and therefore has the biggest impact on markets.

Similarly, PPI measures changes in producer prices generally - but traders tend to watch PPI excluding food and energy as a market driver. Food and energy data tend to be much too volatile and subject to revisions to provide an accurate reading on producer price changes. There are Two Sides to Every Trade Just remember that no trader's knowledge can be complete all the time.

You might have a great handle on economic data published in Europe - but there are times when data published in the U. or Australia might have a surprising impact on your currency market. Doing your homework before trading any currency can help you make better decisions. unemployment rate is expected to increase. Imagine that last month the unemployment rate was at 8. With a consensus at 9.

economy, and as a result, a weaker dollar. They will go ahead and start selling off their dollars for other currencies before the actual number is released. What the heck! This is because the big players have already adjusted their positions way before the news report even came out and may now be taking profits after the run up to the news event. The market players thought the unemployment rate would rise to 9. Now that the report is released and it says something totally different from what they had anticipated, they are all trying to adjust their positions as fast as possible.

This would also happen if the actual report released an unemployment rate of The only difference would be that instead of the dollar rallying, it would drop like a rock! Since the market consensus was 9. looks a lot weaker now than when the forecasts were first released. Instability in the world likelihood of Clinton becoming the next market prods investors to pull out of their president, Lim Say Boon, chief investment financial positions, leading to currency officer at DBS Bank Ltd.

in Singapore, wrote depreciation. in a report. The Super Tuesday results are being seen as "an outcome for continuity over the disruption threatened by Trump and Sanders," he said. You must remember that investors hate uncertainty!

Similar effects have occured with Clinton and Obama. For Trump the upward trend was also there due to his promise to lower taxes and increase government spending on infrastrucure. Section 02 Key drivers of currency movements Market psychology The golden rule of economic indicators The currency rates often start moving even before the actual data comes out due to forecasts and market sentiment!

Sentiment analysis is a kind of FX analysis that concentrates on indicating and consequently measuring the overall psychological and emotional state of all participants of the foreign exchange market. This kind of Forex analysis strives to quantify what percentage of FX market participants are bullish or bearish, in other words being optimistic or pessimistic.

If the forecast promised a positive growth and the actual data comes out even better than forecasted, it amplifies the rise of the currency even more. Overlap between two The Foreign Exchange market operates 24 hours a day, making it nearly impossible sessions for a single trader to track every market Generally, whenever there is an overlap in movement and respond immediately at the market e. In period. For instance, every morning during order to devise an effective and London Open session.

Euro pairs are active time-efficient investment strategy, it is and if you have a good strategy, you could important to understand how much get pips. liquidity there is around the clock to maximize the number of trading opportunities during a trader's own 2. News Release market hours. Fundamentals drive the market. During News Release, volatility is experienced and Besides liquidity, a currency pair's trading some pairs could move over pips range is also heavily dependent on depending on the type of news.

For example geographical location and macroeconomic Non-Farm Payroll is the most volatile news factors. release and dollar based currency pairs could move hundreds of pips in seconds. Knowing what time of day a currency pair However, trading news is risky if you are not has the highest or narrowest trading knowledgeable about it. volatility will undoubtedly help traders improve their investment utility due to better capital allocation. Central Bank Govenor's Speech High volatility offers lucrative profit Speeches from these guys could make pairs potentials to short-term traders.

Lower go hundred's of pips and even change volatility under 80 pips per day is better market sentiment with effects lasting into for risk-averse traders, because there are months.

However, its risky to trade these less iregular market movements caused by speeches except you are subscribed to some aggressive intraday speculation. Section 03 Forex timing What Are the Best Times to Trade Forex We strongly advice you to avoid all resources that traders can then purchase currencies from tell you Forex market is a fairy-tale place where different continents.

The timing in forex trading is is usually the most active as it involves many crucial! countries of the European Union. The US market comes next, so the time when the London session The Forex market is open 24 hours a day, but it is intersects with the US session usually provides the not active all this time! In Forex trading money is biggest returns. Expert traders consider 10 AM to made when the market is active when traders are be the best time as this is the period when the bidding on the prices so it is crucial for you to London market is preparing to close the trades learn about the most productive hours of the day and traders are getting ready to move to US and of the week for trading the forex!

This creates big swings in currency prices thus opening great opportunities for profit. There are three major trading sessions of the Forex market: London, US and Tokyo session.

Fridays are busy as well, but only until PM and during the second half of the day the movements can be very unpredictable. While it is crucial to understand when is the best time to analyze the charts and make the bids, it is equally important to know when NOT to open positions.

A thin market also comes with higher commissions spreads for each trade due to the decreased liquidity. In simple words: if you want to sell a currency, it is harder to find potential buyers, so the broker or bank must increase the commission as it takes a risk of not finding a buyer so quickly.

A good example of chaotic trading is shortly before, during and shortly after important news events. In these times of uncertainty, the currency rates can swing wildly and unpredictably, thus messing up trading by creating execution lags, triggering stop-loss orders, etc. Usually, the higher the liquidity, the lower the volatility, and therefore the tighter the spread Spread is like a commission that you pay for the trade.

However, even major pairs can experience wider than normal spreads during volatile periods, such as interest rates announcements, GDP reports, unemployment figures, to name a few examples. There will also be wider spreads during off market hours, when there is only a fraction of the participants in the market, so the liquidity is lower.

This can be seen when the markets open for the Asian session, at GMT Sunday, for example. This widening occurs typically around news announcements or off-market hours. Most forex brokers allow you to trade all weekend, but spreads will be significantly wider during weekends when liquidity is almost non-existent. Dealing desk or market making brokers are going to widen their spreads coming into economic announcements to offset the risk they take on by filling orders.

Unfortunately, banks do the same thing, so an average forex broker could be better, but only marginally. What happens before or during important announcements. The volatility jumps before important anouncements and the drastic movements can hit the stop-losses, resulting in a lost trade and investment.

wild swings based on rumours etc. So I generally close the position or wait out the increased spread unless it is really pumping. This should not be a problem if you are trading the higher time frames as your stop will probably be quite large and so increasing it by 5 or 10 pips probably won't be too significant risk increase better yet - factor in the widened spread when you calculate your position size as you know that if the trade works out you will be holding for a few days or more, in which time there will be anouncements.

If you can't be at your computer when the news anuncement hits, I would suggest leaving your stop wider for the periods that you can't manage the trade unless there are no announcements over that period. If you are trading lower time frames however, your stops will inevitably be smaller and the increase in stop size may substantially increase your risk.

In this case, you may have to decide to close the position before the anouncment or close enough of the position so that the increased stop will equal the same loss as the originally intended loss.

But make no mistake - you will have to widen your stop. The spread will get you. Even if the announcement is in your favour, price generally whips up and down at least a few pips before taking direction.

If your stop is anywhere near price just prior to news, chances are you will be taken out not matter what the result. Just be aware of the anouncement times and factor this in when deciding wether or not to take a trade. It may often seem that these indicators are contradictory.

Analyses of longer time periods show tendencies, ignoring accidental changes, whereas daily, hourly ir minute graphs help in choosing the moment to open and close positions. Example Multiple time frame analysis time X Let us look at a daily graph.

What do most traders do when they see such a curve? Aug Sep Okt Nov Dec Conclusion For successful and precise market analysis, you must use at least time frames!

Section 04 Time frames Time frame choice of pros The shortest time frame that traders should start looking at when their trading day starts are daily charts, even if you are trading on a 5-minute time frame! The most common form of multiple time frame analysis is to use daily charts to identify the overall trend and then use the hourly charts to determine specific entry levels. As a matter of principle, all good traders I know use 2—3 time frames 3 being the best spaced enough so that each timeframe above encompasses 4—8 bars from the lower time frame.

Even then, I prefer to switch to the other time frames to be really sure about what to do. It attempts to predict price action and trends by analyzing economic indicators, government policy, societal and other factors within a business cycle framework. If you think of the markets as a big clock, fundamentals are the gears and springs that move the hands around the face. Anyone can tell you what time it is now, but the fundamentalist knows about the inner workings that move the clock's hands towards times or prices in the future.

What is Technical Analysis Unlike fundamental analysis, technical analysis focuses on the study of price movements. Technical analysts use historical currency data to forecast the direction of future prices. The underlying belief behind technical analysis is that all current market information is already reflected in the price of that currency; therefore, studying price action is all that is required to make informed trading decisions.

Unlocks access to the leading crypto trading analysis, signals and trading tools. World class development team backed by Quant developers and VC investors. Our Forex trading PDF, it is widely believed that forex is one of the biggest and most fluid or liquid asset markets in the world. Sometimes referred to as FX, currencies are traded 24 hours per day — 7 days per week. In simple terms, refers to the process of exchanging one currency to another — and generally speaking, this will be for tourism, commerce, trading and many other reasons.

In this forex trading PDF we are going to talk about what forex trading is and some of the commonly used terminology in the industry. Essentially, it is the action of selling or buying foreign currencies.

Of course, these are all used by banks, corporations and investors for a variety of reasons like profit, making a trade, exchanging foreign currencies and tourism. One of the major benefits with forex trading is that after opening a position, traders are able to put in place an automatic stop loss as well as at profit levels this closes the trade. The forex market is a place to buy or sell against each other a variety of national currencies, globally.

Wherever two foreign currencies are being traded, you can be sure that a forex market exists regardless of the time zone. In this section of our forex trading PDF, we are going to run through some of the most commonly used forex trading terminologies in the industry.

The pip represents the smallest amount possible a currency quote can alter. For instance, 0. The differentiation between the sale price and the purchase price of a currency pair is known as the spread.

The least popular least commonly used currency pairs usually have a low spread. In some cases, this can be even less than a pip. When trading the most commonly used currency pairs the spread is often at its lowest. The total value of the currency pair needs to surpass the spread in order for the forex trade to become profitable.

In order for forex brokers to increase the number of trades available to its customers, they need to provide capital in the way of leverage. Before you can trade using leverage, you must sign up to a forex broker and open a margin account.

Contingent on the broker and the size of the position, leverage is usually capped at if you are a retail client non-professional trader. Some offshore forex brokers will offer much more than this if you are seeking higher limits. It is because of the aforementioned example that you should exercise caution when using leverage. Should the worst possible scenario happen and your account falls below 0, you should contact your forex broker and ask for its policy on negative balance protection.

The good news is that all forex brokers which are regulated by ESMA the European Securities and Markets Authority will be able to provide you with this extra level of protection, ensuring that you never become in debt with your broker.

Margins are a good way for traders to build up their exposure. Put simply, in order for a trader to maintain position and place a trade, the trader needs to put forward a specific amount of money first — this is the margin. Rather than being a transaction cost, the margin can be compared to a security deposit. This will be held by the broker during an open forex trade. It is commonplace for forex brokers to give their customers access to leverage see above. In order for you to lower your risk of exposure and offset your balance, you might consider hedging.

This is a procedure which involves traders selling and buying financial instruments. When there are movements in currencies, a hedging strategy can reduce the risk of disadvantageous price shifts. The protection of this technique is often a short term solution. Traders often turn to hedge in a panic as a result of the financial media reporting volatility in currency markets.

This is usually down to huge events like geopolitical turmoil conflict in the middle east , global health crisis COVID and of course the great financial crisis of To counteract negative price movements, market players will tactically take advantage of attainable financial instruments in the market. This is hedging against risk in its truest form. Hedging will give you some flexibility when it comes to enhancing your forex trading experience, but there are still no guarantees that you will be totally protected from any losses or risks.

While it can take some time to get your head around heading in the forex markets, the overarching concept is that it presents both outcomes. That is to say, irrespective of which way the markets move, you will remain at the break-even point less some trading commissions. More specifically, the spot trade is a spot transaction, with reference to the sale or the purchase of a currency. Essentially, spot forex is to both sell and buy foreign currencies.

A good example of this is if you were to purchase a certain amount of South African rands ZAR , and exchange that for US dollars USD. If the value of the ZAR increases, you are able to exchange your USD back to ZAR, meaning you get more money back in comparison to the amount you originally paid. CFD is basically a contract which portrays the price movement of financial instruments. So, without having to own the asset, you can still make the most of price movements, whilst also avoiding the need to sell or buy vast amounts of currency.

CFDs are also accessible in bonds, commodities , cryptocurrencies, stocks, indices and of course — forex. With a CFD you are able to trade in price movements, cutting out the need to buy them at all. This section of our forex trading PDF is all about forex charts. When it comes to a MetaTrader platform, traders can use bar charts, line charts and candlestick charts.

You can usually toggle between the different charts, depending on your preferences, fairly easily. The first record of the now-famous candlestick chart was used in Japan during the s and proved invaluable for rice traders. These days, this price chart is without a doubt one the most popular amongst traders all over the world. Much like the OHLC bar chart see below , candlestick charts provide low, high, open and close values for a predetermined time frame.

Live forex traders love this chart due to its visual appearance and the range of price action patterns utilised. This allows you to gain a better understanding of how live trading works before you take any big financial risks in the market. As the title suggests, this one is a bar chart, and each time frame a trader is looking at will be displayed as a bar.

In other words, if you are viewing a daily chart you will see that every bar equates to a full trading day. With this price chart, traders are able to establish who is controlling the market, whether it be sellers or buyers.

OHLC analysis was the starting block for the creation of the ever-popular candlestick charts please further down. It is a great tool for looking at the bigger picture when it comes to trends. The line chart arranges the close prices at the end of that time frame; so in this case, at the end of the day, the line will connect the closing price of that day.

In this section of our forex trading PDF, we are going to talk about the different ways in which you can sell and buy a forex position as well as things to look out for. When it comes to forex trading you can trade both short and long, but always make sure you have a good understanding of forex trading before embarking on trades. After all, forex trading can be a bit complex to begin with, especially when mixing long and short trades.

In a nutshell, going long is usually a term used for buying. So, when traders expect the price of an asset to rise, they will go long. When forex traders expect the price of an asset to fall, they will go short. This means benefiting from buying at a lesser value. To achieve this, you simply need to place a sell order. The current exchange rate of a forex pair is always based on market forces.

This will change on a second-by-second basis. As we noted earlier, you also need to take the spread into account, so there will always be a slight variation in pricing. For instance, if you exchange 1 USD for 17 ZAR, the sale and purchase price offered by your forex broker will be either side of that figure.

The currency pairs with the most notable supply and demand attached to them will be considered the most liquid in the forex market. The supply and demand aspect is thanks to the investment of importers, exporters, banks and traders — to name a few.

The most liquid currency pairs are therefore the ones in high demand. When you feel you are ready to take the plunge and begin live trading, you need to select a forex trading system. There is a vast amount of trading strategies for you to pick from.

This is because investors, speculators, corporations and banks have been trading for decades. In this part of the forex trading PDF, we are going to explain a few of the strategies available to you. If you want to buy and sell currency pairs from the comfort of your home or even via your mobile device , you will need to use a trading platform.

Otherwise referred to as a forex broker, there are literally hundreds of trading platforms active in the online space.

This makes it extremely difficult to know which broker to sign up with. In the below sections of our forex trading PDF, we explain some of the considerations that you need to make. You should also look out for analysis tools available to you. In some cases, this might be embedded, while some offer tools such as technical analysis and fundamental analysis.

This is because it will save you a lot of leg work having to move between different sites and sources of information. Some of the fastest and easiest trading platforms are MetaTrader 5 MT5 and MetaTrader 4 MT4. Crucially, both MT4 and MT5 are fast and receptive trading platforms, both providing live market data and access to sophisticated charts. It is essential before you begin trading seriously that you fully trust the trading platform you intend on using.

This is especially the case if you intend on using a scalping strategy, for example. However, if you like to trade, it is vital for your peace of mind and your finances that you are fully confident with the fast execution of data transfer. This is also the case with the precision of quoted prices, and the speed of order processing.

All of these things are going to help you to have a successful forex trading experience. To enable you to make the most of new opportunities, the ideal forex broker will be available to you 24 hours a day and 7 days a week, in line with the forex market opening hours. To save you from having to request that your broker takes action for you, your forex broker should enable you to manage your account and your trades separately.

This group of people also known as speculative traders engage in trading forex for the sole purpose of making profits. In fact, new mea- sures are always being introduced. If the forecast promised a positive growth and the actual data comes out even better than forecasted, it amplifies the rise of the currency even more. The general reasons for this "sterling crisis" are said to be the participation of Great Britain in the European currency system with fixed exchange rate corridors; recently passed parliamentary elections; a reduction in the British industrial output; the Bank of England efforts to hold the parity rate for the Deutschemark, as well as a dramatic outflow of investors. So if you have bought long a particular currency, and that currency has a higher overnight interest rate than the counter currency, you will gain the difference. The Ten Rules For Forex Trading I list here ten rules that I think are important for trading forex. There are several repetitive chart patterns in the technical analysis, but here I will explain only the top 24 chart patterns.

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